Keoghs Insight

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Mike Renshaw

Mike Renshaw

Partner

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ASHE Day 2020

Client Alerts04/11/2020

ASHE figures for 2020 were published on 3 November 2020. The average increase over the 60th to 90th centiles is 4.98%, the highest increase for 13 years. The average increase in 2019 was 3.78% and the year before was 3.5% so this is a fairly significant jump. 

The biggest rise is at the 60th centile with an increase of 6.1%. The lowest rise is at the 90th centile with an increase of 3.2%.

If we take the average increases over the last five years a claimant with a PPO linked to the 60th centile would actually have done marginally better with an average increase of 4.0% compared to the 70th and 75th centile at 3.7% and the 80th centile at 3.8%. A PPO linked to the 90th centile would have increased by only 3.2% over the same period.

By comparison the National Joint Council (NJC) care payscales only increased by 2.75% this year and RPI for the first nine months of 2020 is running at only 1.6%. The graph below shows how RPI and NJC increases have been dropping for the last two years whereas ASHE has been rising steadily for the past four years. ASHE is now significantly above RPI.

We might have expected the upward ASHE trend to continue, particularly with an ageing population and Brexit contributing to a scarcity of available care workers, but the impact of Covid-19 is not fully reflected in the 2020 data. The data only covers the period to the end of April 2020 at which time the furlough scheme had only just started and the impact on businesses and jobs had only just begun. ONS have included furloughed employees as if they were fully employed so that scheme will have maintained pay rates across the period.

Having said that, there must be an impact from the virus that will affect next years’ figures - whether this will be up or down is impossible to predict. The revised figures for 2020 when we get them may also be subject to greater change than usual as ONS have also had difficulty gathering data as a result of the virus:

Keoghs calculators have been shared with our clients, please contact your Client Account Manager if you have not received them.

The full tables are available ASHE 6115 change 2020