The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently published its National population projections: 2022-based, detailing the potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries with the statistics widely used in planning, including fiscal projections and health. In the latest article from our Care & Rehabilitation SIG, we analyse the ONS data and what this could mean for care costs in future years.
It is estimated that during the 10 years period between 2022 and 2032 the population of the UK will increase by 4.9 million to 72.5 million, a 7.3% increase.
Interestingly, it is estimated England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations; by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.
This increase is not attributed to a difference between the birth and death rate (which mirror one another at 6.8 million over the 10 years period) but an increase in the projected net migration. The projections assume lower future fertility and life expectancy improvement, and by mid-2029 deaths will outnumber births, while net international migration will become the only source of population growth.
Consequently, it is projected there will be fewer children in the UK by 2032 (-6.4% to 11.6 million), with the biggest increase in the pensionable age bracket (13.8% to 13.7 million), followed by the working age bracket (9.4% to 43.2 million).
Over the next 25 year period between 2022 and 2047 the population of the UK is predicted to increase by 8.9 million to 76.5 million, a 13.2% increase.
England’s population continues to be projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations; by 14.5%, compared with 12.9% for Wales, 7.4% for Scotland and 0% for Northern Ireland.
Net migration is expected to be the only source of population growth over the next 25 years at 10 million, with an estimated 1.1 million more deaths than births.
The ONS suggests the number of children will remain static at the 2032 level (11.6 million), with the biggest increase continuing in the pensionable age bracket (25.5% to 15.1 million), followed by the working age bracket (15.5% to 49.9 million).
Our Care & Rehabilitation SIG recently published its latest Complex Injury Care Data Analysis, discussing the continuing rise in care costs and predicting care cost inflation looks set to continue.
Whilst several factors impact care cost inflation, the latest projections from the ONS suggest additional pressures will arise due to an anticipated 25.5% increase in the population of pensionable age by 2047, without a reciprocal increase in those within the working age bracket.
They also indicate a 10% increase of those in the pensionable age bracket above those in the working age bracket.
Unfortunately, as we age, our abilities decline and the need for care and support increases.
Assuming there are no further advances in healthcare and technology, this would point to a need for a minimum 10% increase in the care sector workforce by 10% by 2047 to maintain the current levels.
The question therefore arises, will there be a care workforce large enough to support the needs of an ageing population, given the sector has experienced a steady decline in carer numbers over recent years. There are a host of reasons for this decline, and the issue has been identified by the Government with the Employment Rights Bill, leading to the proposed introduction of a Fair Work Agency to encourage people into the care sector.
The success of the proposed Government intervention remains to be seen, likewise the future impact of developments in healthcare and technology. But as it stands, we are heading towards a situation where the already stretched care workforce is unable to cope with the additional demands of an ageing population, resulting in the need to make the profession more desirable by further increasing wages above the rate of inflation.
The impact of this will add further significant pressures to the continuing rise in care costs which will see an ongoing uptick in the cost of care in personal injury claims.
David Burn
Associate Lead Lawyer, Care & Rehab SIG member
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