"I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place."
Winston Churchill
There has been a lot of speculation about the potential scenarios for BREXIT now that the Prime Minister has resigned and how this might impact on the Government’s Civil Justice Reform Agenda.
Looking at the facts, we know the UK will leave the EU, whether or not there is a deal in place on the 31st October. Whilst it is possible that any Prime Minister could potentially seek an extension, it is a matter of fact that the EU has consistently insisted that there will be no more negotiation and that this is a final deadline.
So, what will happen if the new Prime Minister actively wishes to pursue no deal (a route preferred by many of the numerous current hopefuls), could Parliament block them from so doing? The answer to that is probably not, because the only way to prevent a no-deal Brexit is for the Government to request an extension and for the EU to agree. This is because the potential ways for Parliament to block a no deal BREXIT are fraught with difficulties. So let’s look at the options and the difficulties with each:
Is it possible that the Speaker, John Bercow, will intervene and allow MPs to seize control of the parliamentary timetable to rule out a no-deal Brexit, or use various procedural methods to do the same? Some have suggested that this could be the reason for Mr Bercow’s decision not to stand down as speaker over the summer.. However, it is by no means certain that he would take this course of action and Parliament’s ability still seems limited in this case.
So on balance a no deal Prime Minister is likely to result in a no deal BREXIT, whatever the intentions of Parliament.
Alternatively, if we do end up with a General Election, and a new Government which is not dominated by the Conservatives, will that new Government support and deliver whiplash reform?
It is fair to say that Labour would not endorse the current state of play insofar as whiplash is concerned and it this could well sound the death knell for these reforms. This is because, whilst we have the Civil Liability Act, secondary legislation is required to give effect to the Act and if the Government where opposed to the reforms it would simply drop this work, so that SCT remains where it is and no other changes are made to the CPR.
Whilst the Liberal Democrats were not vocal around the reforms, and so it is hard to see that they have a firm policy, the suspicion remains that a Liberal Democratic Government or a Labour and Liberal Coalition Government would not deliver on these reforms
In terms of the discount rate, this involves solely primary legislation so it is highly probable that we will get a review by the 5th August 2019 as required by the Act, whichever Party comes to power, albeit that the decision on the rate might be different depending on which Lord Chancellor is in place
Don Clarke
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